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Racebets VideoEin lockerer Canter auf der Galoppbahn der Olympia Reitanlage München Riem
The 'Postie' has put me on to one here. He has a very good line in with the Michael Jarvis yard, to the point where he can become a bit blinkered I reckon so we will have to get those taken off and try him with the cheekpieces instead ;- Anyway, probably best if I just quote his messenger post to me yesterday afternoon.
Problem is jonny g has one in there that was pulled out of newmarket the other day cos of the ground and word is its a bit special so you might want to cover it with that.
I had to call him afterwards to see how 'strong' he was on it and he basically said it would run a big race especially after all the rain but he is worried about the Gosden runner Reportage as that has been doing some good 'stuff' by all accounts although he hadn't personally seen it.
I asked him about the other 3 that I had shortlisted on what I have dubbed the 'Sheikh' system, notably Almutawaazin, December and Dreamcoat and he didn't seem to know too much about those ones but did say there had been a bit of buzz about the Meehan runner but that is now a non-runner so he is even more confident.
I went on to ask him if he wanted to wait to put up one he was more sure about it and his quote was "Nah, stick it up mate and keep doing a raindance ;- ".
So there you have it, he is a good,honest bloke and a sound judge but the race looks trappy to me. He said he would donate my stake back on the site if it lost I tried to wind him up and told him I was having 2k on it and his response was "Why don't you have a proper bet?
I think he ended up winding me up ;-. The only downside is that no 6 year old has won the Scottish National since Earth Summit in '94, trained by errr, yep you guessed it ;- I personally like the look of Merigo who won the Eider last time on soft but has won round here on decent ground.
If I didn't have ratings he would be my 2nd best but he is a bit skinny in the market for a 2nd speculative punt.
However, I will probably have a small cover bet on him for at least half the stakes on the other two.
He is entitled to be carrying the weight he is and with watering due to take place overnight, the ground may be ok for him. I'm not too worried, in fact I had a bit more on at 50 on Betfair when the news broke.
It is a minor issue and Karl Burke is just being ultra-cautious as he knows a long horse-box trip to Newbury, especially as the ground is likely to be getting softer from further rain there, is the last thing he needs for a prep.
I never like the Greenham as a trial and it has a horrendous record so it's probably a blessing in disguise and he heads straight to Newmarket still with a very strong chance.
Don't panic! He will have a quiet weekend. All being well his temperature will be fine tomorrow morning.
He will have light exercise over the weekend and then resume on Monday. We haven't had a hiccup all winter with him and the day before you want to give him a prep run, he gets something, but that's horses for you.
Ayr Giorgio Quercos 3. Of course if he is odds-against then he will be getting bet Not the most reliable of types but the first-time blinkers may sharpen his ideas up a bit and the cheekpieces may also help Turkish Supreme as well.
I wouldn't want to take a very short price on the favourite in this with so many? The Hobbs runner will love the better ground he will encounter here and his defeat of last year's Champion Hurdle winner Katchit and subsequent close 2nd to Harchibald in the Xmas Hurdle alongside Punjabi when he fell rates by far the best form here and he rates massive, massive each-way value at 9 with Paddy Power.
The Polomoche has been poor the last 2 outings but McCoy may be able to get something out of him. It's Nicholls, it's top-rated and likely double-figures so it should at least place.
Fresh Air and Fun though has Mccoy and also has the form, having beaten Zacharova. I can see it starting favourite and being punted.
He went on last season to run a close 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup when the ground was too fast for his rounded action so I've been told.
He was just edged out on the line by Geordieland that day and then placed behind Honolulu in the Doncaster Cup. He has been gelded over the winter, which may bring further improvement, and he could be an Ascot Gold Cup horse this year, ground permitting.
Has been going well on the gallops by all accounts, is fit to go in first time and should take the beating here. Centennial looks the chief threat but Tastahil has had a run and represents the flaming Barry Hills yard.
My ratings pretty much do that for me now and leaves me free to concentrate on the principals, namely the top-3 or 5 on the ratings.
Flipando has not won on turf for a long time now but did score in the Lincoln Trial and not disgraced in that race last time.
However, not won with 'soft' in the going description. Zaahid was 3rd in this last year en-route to taking the Victoria Cup, was runner-up to Expresso Star in the Lincoln and his stable, well we know the score by now.
I do think that when it's soft a low draw 'may' be preferable here. Mawatheeq is well drawn and it looks a tough ask from that mark.
However, he is entered in the Lockinge so he could be very decent and with a low draw he is very interesting, the ground is a worry but there won't be many less exposed runners in the race.
I will have to have a cover on this one just in case but he will be the smallest bet of the 3. Spring Mile winner Manassas looks like being a springer, perhaps Pricewise but I prefer Huzzah as my main bet.
Huzzah won at this meeting last year and then Chester so is clearly a spring horse. Michael is on board for father Barry and high draw gives good coverage on both sides for the most in-form trainer in the country.
Not beaten far behind Expresso Star in the Lincoln, will have put him spot on for this, he can improve for that and probably is better handicapped than his stablemate.
The only other one I like is Jaser. Chapple-Hyam runners often do well on soft and this one was progressive last term with cut and ran ok last time behind Expresson Start.
Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking but he could meet trouble as he needs to be brought late on the scene.
Easily the best form, just a question if she is sharp enough, has trained on and whether there is anything with more scope in the field, hence the each-way.
The Hannon runners are the obvious dangers along with the Jim Bolger favourite Maoineach. Sure, this one is probably one of their leading players so could be different gravy but whether they are ready enough to win at the first time of asking or not?
Finjaan will struggle to stay 7f in soft ground so Cityscape by Selkirk out of a Distant View mare should have his optimum conditions and is the selection but it's not a race for big stakes due to the uncertainty surrounding the Godolphin runner.
Think I will leave it there, all the ratings are below Posted by Unknown at AM 1 comments Links to this post. Labels: ayr , betting , guineas , newbury , scottish grand national , tricky trickster.
Monday, April 20, Racebets has moved to FormBet. Posted by Unknown at AM 3 comments Links to this post Labels: betfair , derby , epsom , epsom derby , horse racing , horses , racing.
Sat Bets - Scottish National looks Tricky s. Posted by Unknown at AM 1 comments Links to this post Labels: ayr , betting , guineas , newbury , scottish grand national , tricky trickster.
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